Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indices
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.1
23
39,839
US stocks showed a strong move to the upside over the course of a holiday-
Nifty
0.1
6
11,917
shortened trading session on Wednesday. With the upward move, the major
Mid Cap
0.1
16
14,962
averages added to the modest gains posted on Tuesday to reach new record
Small Cap
0.3
37
14,320
closing highs. The Dow rose by 0.7 percent to 26,966 and the Nasdaq surged by 0.8
Bankex
0.3
107
35,190
percent to 8,170.
U.K. stocks shrugged off weak regional leads to edge higher on yesterday, with
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
financials and energy stocks leading the surge. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.7 percent
Dow Jones
0.7
179
26,966
to 7,609.
Nasdaq
0.8
61
8,170
On domestic front, Indian shares ended Wednesday's session on a flat note as
FTSE
0.7
50
7,609
caution prevailed ahead of the Union Budget 2019 on July 5 and the presentation
Nikkei
-0.5
-116
21,638
of Economic Survey for financial year 2018-19 by the Chief Economic Adviser
Hang Seng
-0.1
-20
28,855
Krishnamurthy Subramanian on Thursday. Mixed global cues also kept investors on
the sidelines.The benchmark BSE Sensex inched up by 0.1 percent to 39,839.
Shanghai Com
-0.9
-29
3,015
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Services sector PMI shrinks for first time in 13 months, falls to 49.6
Advances
1,314
956
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,165
771
Unchanged
172
362
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
1,770
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
27,873
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Net Inflows (`
Company
Sector
Rating
Net
Mtd
Ytd
(`)
(`)
(%)
Cr)
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
764
867
13.5
FII
46
1,602
82,131
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
436
490
12.4
*MFs
52
6,607
7,878
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
269
330
22.7
Bata India
Others
Buy
1,465
1,643
12.2
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
479
612
27.8
More Top Picks on Pg4
DHFL
83
10.6
IBULHSGFIN
691
7.7
ITI
97
6.4
PRESTIGE
286
5.7
DISHTV
31
5.2
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
COX&KINGS
31
-4.9
CENTRUM
25
-3.5
BAYERCROP
3281
-3.3
GPPL
83
-3.1
IGL
302
-2.9
As on July 03, 2019
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
News Analysis
Services sector PMI shrinks for first time in 13 months, falls
to 49.6
Services sector, the dominating area of the country’s economy, shrank for the first
time in 13 months in June, due to weak sales and high taxation, showed the
widely-tracked Nikkei purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
PMI fell to 49.6 points in June, down from 50.2 in May due to broadly stagnant
sales, showed the data, which came ahead of Economic Survey for FY19 and
Union Budget for FY20. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while
a score below that denotes contraction.
In the services sector, there was an outright contraction in business activity, which
was prompted by broadly stagnant sales.
With earlier data showing that PMI for manufacturing also slowed down to 52.1 in
the month from 52.7 in May, the composite PMI Output Index, which maps both
manufacturing and services industry, fell from 51.7 in May to 50.8 in June — its
lowest mark in over a year.
Economic and Political News
Stock in hand, govt marginally hikes MSP of paddy, pulses for kharif season
Odisha tops in mineral output value with 34% of total: Economic Survey
SC stays high court ruling, clears deck for NCLT order on Bhushan Power
Corporate News
NCLAT reserves order on contempt plea filed against Reliance Infratel
L&T acquires control of Mindtree with 60.06% stake
Indiabulls HFC to buy back NCDs, masala bonds worth Rs 2,705 crore
CLP inks deal to buy 3 power assets from Kalpataru for Rs 3,275 cr
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
7,362
764
867
13.5
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,81,314
436
490
12.4
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,778
479
612
27.8
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
1,97,264
6,530
8,552
31.0
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,476
661
1,000
51.3
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
20,341
92
130
41.3
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,264
269
330
22.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other
HDFC Bank
6,80,334
2,490
2,660
6.8
income aided PAT growth. The Strong liability
franchise and healthy capitalisation provides
strong earning visibility. At the current market
price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
83,325
670
1,050
56.7
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
2,593
825
910
10.3
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
Bata India
18,829
1,465
1,643
12.2
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores
addition and focus on women’s high growth
segment and margin improvement
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
24,619
1,085
1,470
35.5
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline in
credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
14,650
144
250
73.6
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,993
1,363
1,570
15.2
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
34,926
596
890
49.3
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
27,872
652
775
18.9
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
9,328
6,730
7,708
14.5
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,366
253
360
42.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,797
1,205
2,178
80.7
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,641
2,070
2,500
20.8
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium density
fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR
Greenply Industries
2,045
167
256
53.3
of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due
to healthy growth in plywood & lamination
business on the back of strong brand and
distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
23,914
120
210
75.0
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,379
256
424
65.6
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,458
311
549
76.5
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,597
58
95
64.2
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
Inox Winds
1,548
70
120
71.4
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
Ashok Leyland
26,522
90
156
73.3
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
23,130
100
NA
NA
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
95,415
-0.2
8.6
11.8
Russia
Micex
2,497
0.5
5.4
10.0
India
Nifty
11,624
7.7
7.0
14.9
China
Shanghai Composite
3,091
5.1
23.9
-2.2
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,929
0.1
11.2
7.6
UK
FTSE
7,279
2.4
8.2
-1.6
Japan
Nikkei
21,206
-1.8
-6.0
-1.2
Germany
DAX
11,526
-0.7
9.2
-4.7
France
CAC
5,351
2.1
13.1
-2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 04, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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